OFL Week 2 Preview
Look for a bounce back week from a lot of top picks in our draft as things begin to balance out and match ups are changed (except Randy Moss, he has a Sunday reservation on Revis Island and is not to be bothered.)
Wausau Winners v. Empire State of Bone
Yahoo projections: 106.1 v. 120.93
Well I get another monster on my schedule after facing McNally and his tough squad last week. Valenta is projected at over 120 points which is a shit ton of points and I am facing an uphill battle to say the least.
Empire State of Bone
Valenta’s power in week 1 came from Arian Foster, the greatest running back of all time apparently, but if you look into this performance more and you will find some chilling details. Arian Foster went untouched until the end zone on 2 TD runs and he shredded up the NFL’s worst rush defense. The Colts are the best defense to play as a fantasy RB because they suck already, they just lost Bob Sanders, and because Peyton is going to come right back and score and continue to give you chances to break the out the stats. Having that in tow, expect Foster to be under 100 yards and produce a TD at best (God I hope this ones dead on haha.) Let’s back off Foster and look at the rest of Bone’s players.
He has Vick playing the Lions which is a nice match up because they have a good front 4 but that’s it and if Vick proved anything Sunday it was that he has his legs back and that he can avoid the defensive line. Vick will put up some numbers and it is his touchdowns that will determine his value.
Reggie Wayne is going to continue to be a nice play every week as long as the Colts need to score 35 to win so no break there. Brandon Marshall is playing an improved defense in Minnesota but expect him to dominate their corners for almost double digit catches.
Michael Turner is one of those guys that had a poor week one (see: Gore, D Williams, A Johnson, R.Moss) and look for him to rebound against a mediocre Arizona defense.
Gates is a stud. End of discussion. He had a game winning Td for Bone on Monday night and expect more of the same week to week.
I’m not analyzing kickers. So let’s end that now.
New Orleans Defense could produce a nice chunk of points if the 49ers play like shit like last weekend but I see them responding and getting nice #’s from Gore.
Having just traded my best player and my MVP from last year I have a lot to prove. Lets hope Jennings bring some points and look for Shonn Greene to respond to his poor week one (probably not this week but in a few he will be elite again.)
Joe Flacco needs to respond from his vacation in Hard Knocks and he might not do it this week. He played very poorly last year against the Bengals and he looked rusty last week. Lets hope he can get that offense clicking for the sake of a lot of fantasy owners.
Roddy White had 21 targets last week and caught over 10 balls but Matt Ryan looked shaky and he needs help. Thank God they don’t play the Steelers again, and hopefully White gets a Td this week. Jennings is my new pick up and I am looking for big things because Grant is out now so hopefully Rodgers slings it more in the red zone.
Deangelo Willaims wrecked the Bucs last year and I hope for the same as the Panthers keep it on the ground. They only ran the ball 4 times in the 2nd half last week which skewed Williams’ nice first half stats. McCoy had a nice 1st week and I hope Vick looks for him on a lot of dump offs to boost his ppr value.
Jermichal Finley. See Jennings, Greg.
My flex is still wide open so we will see what I do there.
Picked up Carolina defense because I am not playing the 49ers defense against the Saints after they gave up 31 to the Seahawks.
Prediction 108 - 104 Wausau Win
Pick Titty v. Dr. Rush
Yahoo projections: 101.85 v. 109.76
Another huge match up for Billy, and a much tougher opponent for Rush after playing Shitbox last week. I think Billy wins this but only because I do not see him going 0-2 and because Rush has some tough match ups.
Tom Brady plays the New York Jets which is the worst opponent to have on your QB’s schedule. This will drastically reduce his production as the game will slow down and become a slugfest.
Larry Fitzgerald might actually have a nice week after all the talk about him being a bust and a scrub now that DA is back there. I expect him to play much better and put up better numbers than any of his teammates. Desean Jackson is already a risky play due to his hit or miss big play style and to have Vick back there drastically reduces his chances of a nice deep ball. But it may force the Lions to put another guy up in the box and allow him some single coverage, and form there its all on Vick.
Do not like Tim Hightower this week and LT is splitting carries so Joe needs some extra production form his flex…
…but sadly he is Wes Welker and he plays the Jets. The good news for Welker is that he is not the #1 WR for the Pats so Revis will not be on him. This could prove to be an insane week for Welker (last year he caught 15 balls against the Jets in one game) and Joe will need it.
Dallas Clark is going to be a major player this week and I expect him to grab a titty and maybe two.
Oakland defense is a risky play because Bradford threw the ball 55 times last week so they are not afraid to air it out and try to open the game up. Look for St. Louis to play well and produce a lot of points.
Billy has Tony Romo playing a Bears defense and without bias this will probably be a favorable match up for Romo. He has a lot of big WR’s and they give the Bears trouble. If Romo can find the end zone he will produce a big output.
I do not know think this is going to be a high scoring match up because the major players all got tough defenses. Chris Johnson drew Pittsburgh which shut down Turner last week and are looking to fill the box and force VY to beat them. Joseph Addai could have a solid afternoon but he is an afterthought right now in that offense, and that will change but I do not know when.
Eddie Royal and Hakeem Nicks could both put up the same numbers as last week or have 0 catches. Not a good feeling to have when your WR’s are not guaranteed a lot of looks.
Jason Witten=Tony Romo’s performance.
Brandon Jacobs is a great flex play though because he looks fresh and he ran hard and we all know what Arian Foster did against the Colts so look for Bradshaw and Jacobs to pound Indy.
Jets defense gets another good team and they will produce again but do not expect them to force many turnovers this week against Brady and the Pats.
Prediction 91-85 Pick Titty
JMan@Chasers.com v. Macnificent
Yahoo projections: 102.3 v 106.5
Yahoo predicts tight one and I do not agree. McNally is going to house this one and there are a lot of reasons. Let’s find out why…
Mac has a favorable match up for Drew Brees, playing the 49ers on Monday night. The Seahawks hung 31 on them and yes they will want to respond but they are still going to give up points and TD’s to Brees. He needs a big week after a slow week one.
Anquan Boldin is going to dominate the Cincy DB’s much like the Patriots did. On the flip side though I do not expect Ochocinco to put up double digit points this week because Baltimore is tough on defense and proved it last week.
Ryan Mathews is going to have a 2 TD performance against the Jaguars as long as it doesn’t monsoon again like it did in KC last Monday. Bradshaw is playing the Colts and as I have discussed numerous times that is like Christmas for a speedy shifty RB. I do not know who will get the TDs for New York this weekend but there will be plenty.
Schiancoe is still Brett’s #1 look for now so expect more touchdowns moving forward.
Mac is playing d-Mac at his flex (wonder why...you guys related?) but it is a risky move and let me tell you why. Michael Bush has practiced all week and is expected to play for the Raiders as they play St. Louis. Either way someone is getting stats on that run D.
New England defense will be in a slow match up with the Jets and they need a big play to spark that defense and look for it this week as they return a Jets TO for a TD.
Jerry has some tough match ups this week and it starts at the top with Carson Palmer. He has to play Baltimore which is never fun. This will not be the same guy we saw last weekend. Still can not believe he dropped Favre after one week. Palmer played perhaps the worst secondary in the NFL and Favre played one of the best and is shaking rust. Nice gift for Ward. Carson duds and has less than 200 yards which will kill Jerry.
TO falls under the umbrella of Palmer and he will also struggle. Colston though could have a big afternoon but the downside for Jerry is that Mac has Brees so not much to gain there.
I do expect Frank Gore to rebound and have a nice game and he should score over 15 fantasy points on Monday night. Steven Jackson is another guy who should have a terrific game but if the Rams throw it 55 times again he will become an afterthought sooner rather than later. Jerry needs another big game from Forte but as I discussed on midwayillustrated.com, he still only had like 50 yards on 17 carries. Terrible output and if Cutler doesn’t find him in the passing game it does not look good for him.
Greg Olsen is just a random pick to me because he should be used more in the red zone but I do not think the Bears will do that. He would fix some of their scoring woes when they get close if they would just use him properly.
Tennessee defense is not a bad play after they showed they got some talent still and the Steelers want to slow it down without big Ben. As long as they contain Mendenhall they should put up a reasonable score.
Prediction 98 - 91 MACnificent
Frank and Kris v. The Three Horsemen
Yahoo projections: 98.91 v 102.07
Byrne just depleted his WR core to snag another monster RB and his strategy could pay off down the road but I don’t think it will this week.
The Three Horsemen
Matt Ryan played like dogshit last week so he can only go up form here. I see him throwing for at least 2 scores in this one against Arizona.
Santana moss proved to be worth a start last week and expect more numbers this week. Peyton shredded this defense for 400+ and expect Moss to get 100+ yards and maybe a big play TD as Donovan will look to open it up a bit. Malcolm Floyd is still a good start as well with Jackson out and Rivers will throw it just as much as any guy in the NFL.
AP and MJD. Well when you got RB’s that go by initials only you know you got studs. AP ran well against New Orleans but he didn’t find the end zone. That is going to change against Miami and he will have a very productive outing. MJD needs to bounce back from a so-so effort and he should this week and he might breakout for a few tittys as well. Having Ronnie brown as the flex is a smart play as well but maybe not for this week. Minny defense is solid and he still has to split carries so you never can expect a monster game form him.
Tony Gonzalez is looking for an improved performance from his QB and he will get it. Lots of catches but no TD’s for him this week.
Baltimore defense is of course a brutal team and they shut down almost everyone they come across. Expect them to win this game in Cincy and for the Bengals to struggle offensively.
Frank and Kris
Aaron Rodgers did not have the game we expected last week but look for him to open it up this week and remind people why we all have a massive hard on for him and his skills.
Miles Austin played well and will sadly do so again against the Bears this weekend. Donald Driver is always catching TD’s and is an underrated #2 WR. Expect at least 25 points combined from these two guys.
Jamaal Charles would be such a stud if Jones were not back there jagging carries. Charles has big play speed and vision and his skill will win out in the end. This week he will have a nice big run against Cleveland and expect nice numbers if he gets the carries. Knowshon Moreno is still an unknown to me coming off injury and adding Maroney to his backfield might take goal line opportunities away which would be costly. I need more time to value him and I don’t know what he will bring this week.
Chris Cooley will catch a TD this week. Guaranteed. He will be targeted early and often and expect big things from him.
Braylon Edwards. Yuck. Please switch this Kris.
Pittsburgh defense has played real well though and with Polamalu back there they are always prime for an INT or a big stop. They will have their hands full with CJ though so lets see if they can shut him down and end his streak of 100+ yard games.
Prediciton 103-96 Frank And Kris
ShitBox’s v. Mr. Nicole Shemerdiak
Yahoo projections: 93.1 v. 105.6
I do not want to sound like a broken record but can we get FEMA in here to help Mark’s team. It is like a disaster zone out there. Jake should win this but I have seen crazier things happen before.
Mr. Nicole Shemerdiak
Love Peyton. He is going to give him 300+ and 3 TD again.
Jake’s WR are fishy to me though. Anytime you are playing two guys form the same WR core and the OTHER guy on the team got 3 TD’s, you gotta be worried. And this is the Giants not the Colts or Saints which are prolific passing teams. Not sure who is gonna get the touches in New York but as long as Nicks is getting them Jake will suffer.
Jahvid Best had a terrible game if you ask me last week, but he did score two TD’s so in fantasy terms he played very well. Expect 8 in the box against Philly with Stafford out and a slow game for Best. Pierre Thomas is a player I like this week and project him to get two TD’s against San Francisco in a shootout.
Zach Miller is a baller with real value and that value exists for two reasons. Can you name the starting WR in Oakland?...Ok now name the #2 guy in Oakland. If you did that than you probably understand why he has such high value. But for those who can’t name those scrubs, here is why he is going to be a solid TE all season. Because Campbell has no good wideouts, Miller is Campbell’s go to guy on short yardage (=red zone.) He should begin putting up nice 70-1000-7 seasons as long as the efficient but limited Campbell is at QB. Hopefully it begins here for JuRock.
Jonathan Stewart is also a nice flex play, last year against Tampa he went for over 100 yards in both games and will continue to put up nice numbers. Although one game was without Deangelo splitting carries so we will have to wait and see who the red zone carries go to.
Dallas defense is a nice safe play considering the Bears aren’t going to hang 28+ but as a Bears fan I find it hard to root for your D Jake, sorry buddy.
I am officially renaming this team as “Markie Mark and the Fun Bunch” for two reasons. First off, Mark is about as jacked as Wahlberg and gets as many babes, and secondly because his group of players better be having fun because they aint winning shit this year. (Even worse I put him in the playoffs. Seriously Finner? At least I got Bone winning it to salvage my rep right now. Long season well see what happens but I digress…)
Here is another nail in my Fantasy Guru Coffin; Mark is going to win this weekend. There I said it, it’s out there, can’t take it back. I really believe in Mark because he has a few great RB’s going and let me explain why.
He has Marshall Faulk, (um when did he come out of retirement? And why didn’t the Bears get him???) Rashard Mendenhall (where is he from…da U! of I), and lastly he has Felix Jones. Now if anyone watched the league last night they know Mark could have gotten Ricky Williams in the 9th round for the same value but oh well what do strippers know anyway.
But getting Marshall Faulk, I mean he is a stud. I do not know how he slipped through waivers but man he is going to have 200 yards plus and 3 TDs against a weak Oakland defense. Wait a second…who the hell is Kevin Faulk? Oh crap. Ok let me reshuffle the deck here, Kevin is a tweener pick for me. On one hand they play the Jets and he is a back up so to speak, but on the other hand he is also one of the best pass-catching RB’s of all time and the Jets are going to force Brady to keep it shallow and short to Welker and the RB’s. So if Faulk get s a TD with Maroney gone now this will have been a great ballsy play. Keep it up Mark.
His other RB’s will also each get a TD this week while I think Jake will struggle to find the end zone. Mendenahll needs a big afternoon for Mark and hopefully he gets it because losing Ryan Grant kind of hurt.
I keep trying to convince myself of this pick and I am having a hard time. Steve Smith needs a big game and Nate Washington needs to prove he is not a fluke. Will it happen? I don’t know but Mark could be sitting on one of the greatest random lineups ever to win a game.
Minny defense is a questionable play. Yes they looked good against the Saints but the Dolphins are not going to turn it over and are as balanced as they come. Look for Miami to score in the 20’s and pull off the upset.
Prediciton 102-96 ShitBox’s
Houston Homies v. Hype’s Heroes
Yahoo Projections: 99.01 v 102.19
Did you guys get a group rate on the H word alliterations? Did I miss an Eagle Ridge memo on my team name? Either way thank god the owners don’t have to play on Sundays because I don’t know who is going to be more Styx (don’t know how to spell it) Ward or Voss. Either way this is a solid match up of teams with different styles that has a lot of history. Friends since they were 5, this match up will be a winner take all fight to the finish.
I was very high on Voss’ team after the first 4 picks in the draft but it has become obvious that as the Texans go, Voss goes as well. Now, they played well and won in week 1 but sadly Voss had to watch Arian “Don’t call me Deshaun” Foster run over the Colts as Andre Johnson continued to block and run short routes. The good news is the Washington run D is much tougher and should force some looks down field for Schaub.
Schaub will have a nice game but fantasy wise Id o not know I I see him having a great game. The Redskins have proved to be tough defensively and want to keep the score below 20. They remind me already of Shannahan’s Denver teams. They run the ball well, keep you off balance with their pass plays, great run D, and they don’t like to give up the big plays. Well Houston loves big plays and the Johnson-Schaub combo is built on it. Look for another slow week from Voss’ top line players.
Randy Moss has just over 100 yards and 2 TD’s against the Jets in his last 4 games. That stat is very troubling for Voss, and it should happen again on Sunday. Moss may get a TD but he will not be a breakout star this week. Belicheck finds ways to wins and he finds the best way to move the ball and with the Jets removing Randy form the game plan he will simply look elsewhere.
If Voss is going to win this week he will need it from his RB’s. The newly acquired Brendan Jackson has a lot to prove and may get some scoring chances against a tough Buffalo Pass defense. Reggie Bush needs to have a big play night, and score on a 60 yard screen or a punt return for Voss to get his value there. Look for one of these guys to play well not both this weekend.
Johnny Knox in the flex? You reading my articles Voss? (midwayillustrated.com) I think this play does have some potential value in it and hopefully Cutler does not lock onto Aromashudu in the red zone. I really want this play to work for so many reasons so good luck Voss and go Bears.
Green Bay defense proved to be a start last week and they looked fierce on the field as well. Causing concussions and broken legs galore! ( side note how awesome were all those crazy injuries? Weaver’s leg and the guy in Houston fucked his ankle up! Not to mention all the concussions. How crazy are these guys?) They should give up under 17 and maybe force a few INT’s while they are at it.
The other side of the coin is Ward’s team. Driven not by the pass, but by the run. Ray Rice needs a bounce back effort and so do a lot of Hype’s players.
Eli Manning had a great game last week and it looks like Terry is going to start him over Favre which I think is smart for a lot of reasons but may be a bad decision come Monday morning. Manning is going against a Bob Sanders less secondary and while there will be some pass rush; it will not affect him at all. The only thing to worry about is after watching Houston run it most of the time, you wonder why New York wouldn’t do the same. I mean they are run first, have two stud RB’s with a whole lightning thunder thing going on and they just want to win any way possible. Eli could be a stud or a dud, tread carefully Terrance Anderson Ward. (Had to put it in there somewhere haha)
At wide out he has great talent but both guys are without their starting QB’s for a few weeks so it will be tough. Hines still has value because he is a great ppr player and finds the open spots in the zone. Johnson on the other hand will have a hard time getting single coverage or good deep ball opportunities with Shaun Hill running the gang. The only way Johnson gains value is if the Lions focus on finding ways to get him the ball no matter what and they might because Best averaged less than 2 ypc so you don’t want him to be your lead dog. Hill may just throw it up over and over again which would benefit Terry.
Until proven otherwise, Austin Collie is a must start. The Colts have shown the ability to gun it and Collie is part of that gang. He has great hands, is very reliable and finds ways into the end zone. Pretty much all you can ask for out of your WR.
Ray Rice it is time. I hyped him up and so did a lot of people as a better version of MJD and a more complete back than CJ. I loved Ray Rice and Is till do. Hopefully he breaks it open and shows us that talent we have all been expecting to see form day 1. Benson ended dup getting a TD last week and against a tough Baltimore defense he may struggle but hopefully he can find the end zone and salvage some value. (Hopefully for Terry this game is on CBs because he’s got both RB’s) Last season in his only game against the Ravens he did have 117 and a TD so there is hope.
That leaves Philadelphia as Terry’s defense and this play is solid as they come. Playing a weakened Detroit team should be fun and the Eagles will slow the pace down with Vick at the helm and just try to move to 1-1.
I think Voss has a good chance at winning but it all comes down to how Houston plays this weekend. I see Ward eeking out a victory in a fun match up.
Prediction 102-101.9 (Ok wont be that close but it looks sick)
Well that concludes my week 2 preview and for those of you wondering if me and Casey broke up (because how else would I have this much free time to write this thing haha) we are happily together and loving Wausau (but missing you guys!) I just had some down time at work and was bored so I did what I love. Good luck this week and we will see if the big stars come out of their shells after a lame week 1.