MNF Preview...DITKA!

Monday Night Forecast

As most of you know, I recently moved to Northern Wisconsin after living 23 years in Chicago, the greatest sports city in the world, and I fully prepare to wear my White #8 Sexy Rexy jersey to the bar and that is a dangerous move. That is a Monday problem though and for now I can at least share my humble opinion on what I expect to happen this week and what the Bears need to do to come away with a victory.

Both teams are 2-0 and sit atop the NFC North but they got there by taking two very different paths. At first glance one would think both are pass heavy offenses, but dig a little deeper into the numbers and that perception changes. The Bears have been strictly all pass as the run game has failed them while the Packers have been surprisingly average through the air, instead relying on a balanced attack to get them wins. I do expect that to change though once the Packers realize they can't run the ball against our strong front seven.

The Chicago Bears enter the game allowing just 28 rushing yards a game which is tops in the NFL. Sadly on the flip side they are allowing over 260 passing yards a game which puts them near the bottom of the league. Green Bay’s potent offense has not broken free yet this year as people would have expected and I am hoping that flight gets delayed one more week for the sake of the Bears. The Bears only have two sacks this season and that total needs to double if we are going to have a chance on Monday night.

The Packers offense has averaged 30.5 ppg which is 3rd in the NFL but yardage wise they have not been as efficient as expected. Aaron Rodgers is only throwing for 211 yards a game but the Packers have run the ball exceptionally well in their first two games. Despite the loss of their leading rusher for the season, they gained 223 yards on the ground in weeks one and two. This bodes well for the Bears as their run defense is truly back to its old form as our front seven have played exceptionally well. The secondary on the other hand has not been able to handle top-line receivers and the Packers have one of the best receiving duos in the NFL in Donald Driver and Greg Jennings. Don’t forget Jermichael Finley at tight end because he is a beast and may cause match up problems for our small corners and safeties. The biggest fear I have of the Packers is they have converted 50% of their 3rd downs this season which shows their offense is in a good rhythm even if it is not producing the yardage like we expected.

When the Bears have the ball, look for them to continue slinging it around the field as Cutler enters week 3 as the highest rated passer in the NFL at 121.2. (Side Note: How does Peyton Manning have more TD’s, yards, completions, attempts, a higher %, and less INT than Cutler but is rated lower? Wacky system based on YPA that is how.) The Packers defense has been a beast this season, totaling a league high 10 sacks so far (6 for LB Clay Matthews!) and only allowing 116.5 passing yards a game. That is probably the worst news in the world for any Bears fan because we know Frank “Oh-My-God” Omiyale is protecting Cutler along with the other suspect O-linemen. We will see who wins this match up on Monday but I think once again the Bears offensive line will determine how far we go in this game.

There is one other area in which the Bears must improve and it was a surprise to me when I came across the stats. Devin Hester has returned 6 punts for a total of 12 yards this season. That is the WORST in the NFL. Remember when he was an automatic TD? I feel they should put Johnny Knox back there now, he has the confidence and the speed to break things open in the return game (his one return this season went for 42 yards.) I think the Bears need a big day from special teams to defeat the Packers and Knox should be given the opportunity to make those plays.

After giving you the tip that Johnny Knox (Bears leading WR with 86 yards), not Devin Aromashudu (0 Catches, limited PT) was the receiver you wanted last week here is a full projection for the game Monday Night.

Fearless Fantasy Forecast:

Cutler- 245 yards passing, 2 TD, 2 INT 24 yards rushing
Knox- 4-53 yards TD
Olsen- 4-39-TD
Hester- 5- 64
Forte-over 100 total yards and a rush TD
Gould 2 FG, 3 XP

Rodgers- 285 yards, 2 TD, INT
Jennings- 8- 112 TD
Finley- 6-84
Driver 4-44 TD
Jackson- 54 yards rushing, less than 3 ypc
Defense- 3 sacks, 2 TO’s

Prediction: Bears 27 Packers 24

Week 3 NFL Pick EM

Season 17-15

If you didn't bail on me after week 1 than you were rewarded.
Here is Week 3

San Francisco 49ers at
Kansas City Chiefs +2.5
49ers

Cleveland Browns at
Baltimore Ravens -10.5
Ravens

Dallas Cowboys at
Houston Texans -2.5
Texans

Detroit Lions at
Minnesota Vikings -10.5
Vikings

Buffalo Bills at
New England Patriots -13.5
Patriots

Atlanta Falcons at
New Orleans Saints -4.5
Falcons

Tennessee Titans at
New York Giants -3.5
Ginats

Pittsburgh Steelers at
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5
Steelers

Cincinnati Bengals at
Carolina Panthers +3.5
Bengals

Philadelphia Eagles at
Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5
Eagles

Washington Redskins at
St. Louis Rams +3.5
Redskins

Indianapolis Colts at
Denver Broncos +6.5
Colts

Oakland Raiders at
Arizona Cardinals -4.5
Cardinals

San Diego Chargers at
Seattle Seahawks +5.5
Chargers

New York Jets at
Miami Dolphins -1.5
Dolphins

Green Bay Packers at
Chicago Bears +3.5
Bears

Cheers,

Fantasy Finn

Week 2 NFL Pick EM Review

Week 2 11-5
Season 17-15

Well this week went much better and I am looking at week 3 right now. Look for the picks tomorrow afternoon and some more Midwayillustrated.com blogs coming soon. Also I will be posting my week 2 Review soon for the OFL!

Cheers,

Fantasy Finn

Week 2 NFL Pick Em

Week 1 6-10
Overall 6-10

Well I can only go up from here. So here they are for week 2:

Arizona Cardinals at
Atlanta Falcons -6.5
Falcons

Baltimore Ravens at
Cincinnati Bengals +1.5
Ravens

Kansas City Chiefs at
Cleveland Browns -1.5
Chiefs

Chicago Bears at
Dallas Cowboys -8.5
Bears

Philadelphia Eagles at
Detroit Lions +3.5
Eagles

Buffalo Bills at
Green Bay Packers -13.5
Packers

Pittsburgh Steelers at
Tennessee Titans -5.5
Steelers

Miami Dolphins at
Minnesota Vikings -5.5
Dolphins

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at
Carolina Panthers -2.5
Panthers

Seattle Seahawks at
Denver Broncos -3.5
Seahawks

St. Louis Rams at
Oakland Raiders -4.5
Rams

New England Patriots at
New York Jets +1.5
Patriots

Jacksonville Jaguars at
San Diego Chargers -7.5
Chargers

Houston Texans at
Washington Redskins +2.5
Texans

New York Giants at
Indianapolis Colts -5.5
Colts

New Orleans Saints at
San Francisco 49ers +4.5
49ers

Cheers,

Fantasy Finn

Week 2 Preview of the OFL

OFL Week 2 Preview

Look for a bounce back week from a lot of top picks in our draft as things begin to balance out and match ups are changed (except Randy Moss, he has a Sunday reservation on Revis Island and is not to be bothered.)

Wausau Winners v. Empire State of Bone
Yahoo projections: 106.1 v. 120.93

Well I get another monster on my schedule after facing McNally and his tough squad last week. Valenta is projected at over 120 points which is a shit ton of points and I am facing an uphill battle to say the least.

Empire State of Bone

Valenta’s power in week 1 came from Arian Foster, the greatest running back of all time apparently, but if you look into this performance more and you will find some chilling details. Arian Foster went untouched until the end zone on 2 TD runs and he shredded up the NFL’s worst rush defense. The Colts are the best defense to play as a fantasy RB because they suck already, they just lost Bob Sanders, and because Peyton is going to come right back and score and continue to give you chances to break the out the stats. Having that in tow, expect Foster to be under 100 yards and produce a TD at best (God I hope this ones dead on haha.) Let’s back off Foster and look at the rest of Bone’s players.

He has Vick playing the Lions which is a nice match up because they have a good front 4 but that’s it and if Vick proved anything Sunday it was that he has his legs back and that he can avoid the defensive line. Vick will put up some numbers and it is his touchdowns that will determine his value.

Reggie Wayne is going to continue to be a nice play every week as long as the Colts need to score 35 to win so no break there. Brandon Marshall is playing an improved defense in Minnesota but expect him to dominate their corners for almost double digit catches.

Michael Turner is one of those guys that had a poor week one (see: Gore, D Williams, A Johnson, R.Moss) and look for him to rebound against a mediocre Arizona defense.

Gates is a stud. End of discussion. He had a game winning Td for Bone on Monday night and expect more of the same week to week.

I’m not analyzing kickers. So let’s end that now.

New Orleans Defense could produce a nice chunk of points if the 49ers play like shit like last weekend but I see them responding and getting nice #’s from Gore.



Wausau Winners

Having just traded my best player and my MVP from last year I have a lot to prove. Lets hope Jennings bring some points and look for Shonn Greene to respond to his poor week one (probably not this week but in a few he will be elite again.)

Joe Flacco needs to respond from his vacation in Hard Knocks and he might not do it this week. He played very poorly last year against the Bengals and he looked rusty last week. Lets hope he can get that offense clicking for the sake of a lot of fantasy owners.

Roddy White had 21 targets last week and caught over 10 balls but Matt Ryan looked shaky and he needs help. Thank God they don’t play the Steelers again, and hopefully White gets a Td this week. Jennings is my new pick up and I am looking for big things because Grant is out now so hopefully Rodgers slings it more in the red zone.

Deangelo Willaims wrecked the Bucs last year and I hope for the same as the Panthers keep it on the ground. They only ran the ball 4 times in the 2nd half last week which skewed Williams’ nice first half stats. McCoy had a nice 1st week and I hope Vick looks for him on a lot of dump offs to boost his ppr value.

Jermichal Finley. See Jennings, Greg.

My flex is still wide open so we will see what I do there.

Picked up Carolina defense because I am not playing the 49ers defense against the Saints after they gave up 31 to the Seahawks.

Prediction 108 - 104 Wausau Win

Pick Titty v. Dr. Rush
Yahoo projections: 101.85 v. 109.76

Another huge match up for Billy, and a much tougher opponent for Rush after playing Shitbox last week. I think Billy wins this but only because I do not see him going 0-2 and because Rush has some tough match ups.

Dr. Rush

Tom Brady plays the New York Jets which is the worst opponent to have on your QB’s schedule. This will drastically reduce his production as the game will slow down and become a slugfest.

Larry Fitzgerald might actually have a nice week after all the talk about him being a bust and a scrub now that DA is back there. I expect him to play much better and put up better numbers than any of his teammates. Desean Jackson is already a risky play due to his hit or miss big play style and to have Vick back there drastically reduces his chances of a nice deep ball. But it may force the Lions to put another guy up in the box and allow him some single coverage, and form there its all on Vick.

Do not like Tim Hightower this week and LT is splitting carries so Joe needs some extra production form his flex…

…but sadly he is Wes Welker and he plays the Jets. The good news for Welker is that he is not the #1 WR for the Pats so Revis will not be on him. This could prove to be an insane week for Welker (last year he caught 15 balls against the Jets in one game) and Joe will need it.

Dallas Clark is going to be a major player this week and I expect him to grab a titty and maybe two.

Oakland defense is a risky play because Bradford threw the ball 55 times last week so they are not afraid to air it out and try to open the game up. Look for St. Louis to play well and produce a lot of points.

Pick Titty

Billy has Tony Romo playing a Bears defense and without bias this will probably be a favorable match up for Romo. He has a lot of big WR’s and they give the Bears trouble. If Romo can find the end zone he will produce a big output.

I do not know think this is going to be a high scoring match up because the major players all got tough defenses. Chris Johnson drew Pittsburgh which shut down Turner last week and are looking to fill the box and force VY to beat them. Joseph Addai could have a solid afternoon but he is an afterthought right now in that offense, and that will change but I do not know when.

Eddie Royal and Hakeem Nicks could both put up the same numbers as last week or have 0 catches. Not a good feeling to have when your WR’s are not guaranteed a lot of looks.

Jason Witten=Tony Romo’s performance.

Brandon Jacobs is a great flex play though because he looks fresh and he ran hard and we all know what Arian Foster did against the Colts so look for Bradshaw and Jacobs to pound Indy.

Jets defense gets another good team and they will produce again but do not expect them to force many turnovers this week against Brady and the Pats.

Prediction 91-85 Pick Titty




JMan@Chasers.com v. Macnificent
Yahoo projections: 102.3 v 106.5

Yahoo predicts tight one and I do not agree. McNally is going to house this one and there are a lot of reasons. Let’s find out why…

MACnificent

Mac has a favorable match up for Drew Brees, playing the 49ers on Monday night. The Seahawks hung 31 on them and yes they will want to respond but they are still going to give up points and TD’s to Brees. He needs a big week after a slow week one.

Anquan Boldin is going to dominate the Cincy DB’s much like the Patriots did. On the flip side though I do not expect Ochocinco to put up double digit points this week because Baltimore is tough on defense and proved it last week.

Ryan Mathews is going to have a 2 TD performance against the Jaguars as long as it doesn’t monsoon again like it did in KC last Monday. Bradshaw is playing the Colts and as I have discussed numerous times that is like Christmas for a speedy shifty RB. I do not know who will get the TDs for New York this weekend but there will be plenty.

Schiancoe is still Brett’s #1 look for now so expect more touchdowns moving forward.

Mac is playing d-Mac at his flex (wonder why...you guys related?) but it is a risky move and let me tell you why. Michael Bush has practiced all week and is expected to play for the Raiders as they play St. Louis. Either way someone is getting stats on that run D.

New England defense will be in a slow match up with the Jets and they need a big play to spark that defense and look for it this week as they return a Jets TO for a TD.

JMan@Chasers.com

Jerry has some tough match ups this week and it starts at the top with Carson Palmer. He has to play Baltimore which is never fun. This will not be the same guy we saw last weekend. Still can not believe he dropped Favre after one week. Palmer played perhaps the worst secondary in the NFL and Favre played one of the best and is shaking rust. Nice gift for Ward. Carson duds and has less than 200 yards which will kill Jerry.

TO falls under the umbrella of Palmer and he will also struggle. Colston though could have a big afternoon but the downside for Jerry is that Mac has Brees so not much to gain there.

I do expect Frank Gore to rebound and have a nice game and he should score over 15 fantasy points on Monday night. Steven Jackson is another guy who should have a terrific game but if the Rams throw it 55 times again he will become an afterthought sooner rather than later. Jerry needs another big game from Forte but as I discussed on midwayillustrated.com, he still only had like 50 yards on 17 carries. Terrible output and if Cutler doesn’t find him in the passing game it does not look good for him.

Greg Olsen is just a random pick to me because he should be used more in the red zone but I do not think the Bears will do that. He would fix some of their scoring woes when they get close if they would just use him properly.

Tennessee defense is not a bad play after they showed they got some talent still and the Steelers want to slow it down without big Ben. As long as they contain Mendenhall they should put up a reasonable score.

Prediction 98 - 91 MACnificent

Frank and Kris v. The Three Horsemen
Yahoo projections: 98.91 v 102.07

Byrne just depleted his WR core to snag another monster RB and his strategy could pay off down the road but I don’t think it will this week.

The Three Horsemen

Matt Ryan played like dogshit last week so he can only go up form here. I see him throwing for at least 2 scores in this one against Arizona.

Santana moss proved to be worth a start last week and expect more numbers this week. Peyton shredded this defense for 400+ and expect Moss to get 100+ yards and maybe a big play TD as Donovan will look to open it up a bit. Malcolm Floyd is still a good start as well with Jackson out and Rivers will throw it just as much as any guy in the NFL.

AP and MJD. Well when you got RB’s that go by initials only you know you got studs. AP ran well against New Orleans but he didn’t find the end zone. That is going to change against Miami and he will have a very productive outing. MJD needs to bounce back from a so-so effort and he should this week and he might breakout for a few tittys as well. Having Ronnie brown as the flex is a smart play as well but maybe not for this week. Minny defense is solid and he still has to split carries so you never can expect a monster game form him.

Tony Gonzalez is looking for an improved performance from his QB and he will get it. Lots of catches but no TD’s for him this week.

Baltimore defense is of course a brutal team and they shut down almost everyone they come across. Expect them to win this game in Cincy and for the Bengals to struggle offensively.


Frank and Kris

Aaron Rodgers did not have the game we expected last week but look for him to open it up this week and remind people why we all have a massive hard on for him and his skills.

Miles Austin played well and will sadly do so again against the Bears this weekend. Donald Driver is always catching TD’s and is an underrated #2 WR. Expect at least 25 points combined from these two guys.

Jamaal Charles would be such a stud if Jones were not back there jagging carries. Charles has big play speed and vision and his skill will win out in the end. This week he will have a nice big run against Cleveland and expect nice numbers if he gets the carries. Knowshon Moreno is still an unknown to me coming off injury and adding Maroney to his backfield might take goal line opportunities away which would be costly. I need more time to value him and I don’t know what he will bring this week.

Chris Cooley will catch a TD this week. Guaranteed. He will be targeted early and often and expect big things from him.

Braylon Edwards. Yuck. Please switch this Kris.

Pittsburgh defense has played real well though and with Polamalu back there they are always prime for an INT or a big stop. They will have their hands full with CJ though so lets see if they can shut him down and end his streak of 100+ yard games.

Prediciton 103-96 Frank And Kris


ShitBox’s v. Mr. Nicole Shemerdiak
Yahoo projections: 93.1 v. 105.6

I do not want to sound like a broken record but can we get FEMA in here to help Mark’s team. It is like a disaster zone out there. Jake should win this but I have seen crazier things happen before.

Mr. Nicole Shemerdiak

Love Peyton. He is going to give him 300+ and 3 TD again.

Jake’s WR are fishy to me though. Anytime you are playing two guys form the same WR core and the OTHER guy on the team got 3 TD’s, you gotta be worried. And this is the Giants not the Colts or Saints which are prolific passing teams. Not sure who is gonna get the touches in New York but as long as Nicks is getting them Jake will suffer.

Jahvid Best had a terrible game if you ask me last week, but he did score two TD’s so in fantasy terms he played very well. Expect 8 in the box against Philly with Stafford out and a slow game for Best. Pierre Thomas is a player I like this week and project him to get two TD’s against San Francisco in a shootout.

Zach Miller is a baller with real value and that value exists for two reasons. Can you name the starting WR in Oakland?...Ok now name the #2 guy in Oakland. If you did that than you probably understand why he has such high value. But for those who can’t name those scrubs, here is why he is going to be a solid TE all season. Because Campbell has no good wideouts, Miller is Campbell’s go to guy on short yardage (=red zone.) He should begin putting up nice 70-1000-7 seasons as long as the efficient but limited Campbell is at QB. Hopefully it begins here for JuRock.

Jonathan Stewart is also a nice flex play, last year against Tampa he went for over 100 yards in both games and will continue to put up nice numbers. Although one game was without Deangelo splitting carries so we will have to wait and see who the red zone carries go to.

Dallas defense is a nice safe play considering the Bears aren’t going to hang 28+ but as a Bears fan I find it hard to root for your D Jake, sorry buddy.

ShitBox’s

I am officially renaming this team as “Markie Mark and the Fun Bunch” for two reasons. First off, Mark is about as jacked as Wahlberg and gets as many babes, and secondly because his group of players better be having fun because they aint winning shit this year. (Even worse I put him in the playoffs. Seriously Finner? At least I got Bone winning it to salvage my rep right now. Long season well see what happens but I digress…)

Here is another nail in my Fantasy Guru Coffin; Mark is going to win this weekend. There I said it, it’s out there, can’t take it back. I really believe in Mark because he has a few great RB’s going and let me explain why.

He has Marshall Faulk, (um when did he come out of retirement? And why didn’t the Bears get him???) Rashard Mendenhall (where is he from…da U! of I), and lastly he has Felix Jones. Now if anyone watched the league last night they know Mark could have gotten Ricky Williams in the 9th round for the same value but oh well what do strippers know anyway.

But getting Marshall Faulk, I mean he is a stud. I do not know how he slipped through waivers but man he is going to have 200 yards plus and 3 TDs against a weak Oakland defense. Wait a second…who the hell is Kevin Faulk? Oh crap. Ok let me reshuffle the deck here, Kevin is a tweener pick for me. On one hand they play the Jets and he is a back up so to speak, but on the other hand he is also one of the best pass-catching RB’s of all time and the Jets are going to force Brady to keep it shallow and short to Welker and the RB’s. So if Faulk get s a TD with Maroney gone now this will have been a great ballsy play. Keep it up Mark.

His other RB’s will also each get a TD this week while I think Jake will struggle to find the end zone. Mendenahll needs a big afternoon for Mark and hopefully he gets it because losing Ryan Grant kind of hurt.

I keep trying to convince myself of this pick and I am having a hard time. Steve Smith needs a big game and Nate Washington needs to prove he is not a fluke. Will it happen? I don’t know but Mark could be sitting on one of the greatest random lineups ever to win a game.

Minny defense is a questionable play. Yes they looked good against the Saints but the Dolphins are not going to turn it over and are as balanced as they come. Look for Miami to score in the 20’s and pull off the upset.

Prediciton 102-96 ShitBox’s

Houston Homies v. Hype’s Heroes
Yahoo Projections: 99.01 v 102.19

Did you guys get a group rate on the H word alliterations? Did I miss an Eagle Ridge memo on my team name? Either way thank god the owners don’t have to play on Sundays because I don’t know who is going to be more Styx (don’t know how to spell it) Ward or Voss. Either way this is a solid match up of teams with different styles that has a lot of history. Friends since they were 5, this match up will be a winner take all fight to the finish.

Houston Homies

I was very high on Voss’ team after the first 4 picks in the draft but it has become obvious that as the Texans go, Voss goes as well. Now, they played well and won in week 1 but sadly Voss had to watch Arian “Don’t call me Deshaun” Foster run over the Colts as Andre Johnson continued to block and run short routes. The good news is the Washington run D is much tougher and should force some looks down field for Schaub.

Schaub will have a nice game but fantasy wise Id o not know I I see him having a great game. The Redskins have proved to be tough defensively and want to keep the score below 20. They remind me already of Shannahan’s Denver teams. They run the ball well, keep you off balance with their pass plays, great run D, and they don’t like to give up the big plays. Well Houston loves big plays and the Johnson-Schaub combo is built on it. Look for another slow week from Voss’ top line players.

Randy Moss has just over 100 yards and 2 TD’s against the Jets in his last 4 games. That stat is very troubling for Voss, and it should happen again on Sunday. Moss may get a TD but he will not be a breakout star this week. Belicheck finds ways to wins and he finds the best way to move the ball and with the Jets removing Randy form the game plan he will simply look elsewhere.

If Voss is going to win this week he will need it from his RB’s. The newly acquired Brendan Jackson has a lot to prove and may get some scoring chances against a tough Buffalo Pass defense. Reggie Bush needs to have a big play night, and score on a 60 yard screen or a punt return for Voss to get his value there. Look for one of these guys to play well not both this weekend.

Johnny Knox in the flex? You reading my articles Voss? (midwayillustrated.com) I think this play does have some potential value in it and hopefully Cutler does not lock onto Aromashudu in the red zone. I really want this play to work for so many reasons so good luck Voss and go Bears.

Green Bay defense proved to be a start last week and they looked fierce on the field as well. Causing concussions and broken legs galore! ( side note how awesome were all those crazy injuries? Weaver’s leg and the guy in Houston fucked his ankle up! Not to mention all the concussions. How crazy are these guys?) They should give up under 17 and maybe force a few INT’s while they are at it.

Hype’s Heroes

The other side of the coin is Ward’s team. Driven not by the pass, but by the run. Ray Rice needs a bounce back effort and so do a lot of Hype’s players.

Eli Manning had a great game last week and it looks like Terry is going to start him over Favre which I think is smart for a lot of reasons but may be a bad decision come Monday morning. Manning is going against a Bob Sanders less secondary and while there will be some pass rush; it will not affect him at all. The only thing to worry about is after watching Houston run it most of the time, you wonder why New York wouldn’t do the same. I mean they are run first, have two stud RB’s with a whole lightning thunder thing going on and they just want to win any way possible. Eli could be a stud or a dud, tread carefully Terrance Anderson Ward. (Had to put it in there somewhere haha)

At wide out he has great talent but both guys are without their starting QB’s for a few weeks so it will be tough. Hines still has value because he is a great ppr player and finds the open spots in the zone. Johnson on the other hand will have a hard time getting single coverage or good deep ball opportunities with Shaun Hill running the gang. The only way Johnson gains value is if the Lions focus on finding ways to get him the ball no matter what and they might because Best averaged less than 2 ypc so you don’t want him to be your lead dog. Hill may just throw it up over and over again which would benefit Terry.

Until proven otherwise, Austin Collie is a must start. The Colts have shown the ability to gun it and Collie is part of that gang. He has great hands, is very reliable and finds ways into the end zone. Pretty much all you can ask for out of your WR.

Ray Rice it is time. I hyped him up and so did a lot of people as a better version of MJD and a more complete back than CJ. I loved Ray Rice and Is till do. Hopefully he breaks it open and shows us that talent we have all been expecting to see form day 1. Benson ended dup getting a TD last week and against a tough Baltimore defense he may struggle but hopefully he can find the end zone and salvage some value. (Hopefully for Terry this game is on CBs because he’s got both RB’s) Last season in his only game against the Ravens he did have 117 and a TD so there is hope.

That leaves Philadelphia as Terry’s defense and this play is solid as they come. Playing a weakened Detroit team should be fun and the Eagles will slow the pace down with Vick at the helm and just try to move to 1-1.

I think Voss has a good chance at winning but it all comes down to how Houston plays this weekend. I see Ward eeking out a victory in a fun match up.

Prediction 102-101.9 (Ok wont be that close but it looks sick)

Well that concludes my week 2 preview and for those of you wondering if me and Casey broke up (because how else would I have this much free time to write this thing haha) we are happily together and loving Wausau (but missing you guys!) I just had some down time at work and was bored so I did what I love. Good luck this week and we will see if the big stars come out of their shells after a lame week 1.

Cheers,

Fantasy Finn

Matt Forte NFC POW

http://www.midwayillustrated.com/2010-archives/september/matt-forte-nfc-player-of-the-week.html

Check out a review of Matt Forte's award winning weekend.

Cheers,
Fantays Finn

Bears Johnny Knox looks for Breakout Game

Check out my story @
http://midwayillustrated.com/2010-archives/september/fearless-fantasy-prediction-johnny-knox.html

Cheers,
Fantasy Finn

OFL Monday Night What to Watch For

Sup fellas?? how about that ride in.... Oh boy was it a crazy week 1. Voss' aerial attack had flight delays, Arian Foster is the second coming of Priest Holmes and I feel like the Blazers when they drafted Sam Bowie over MJ (who trades CJ!!!.) Also we got an insane matchup between Bone and Billy while Byrne and Voss slug it out in just an ugly ugly matchup that reminds me of the 2004 Sandburg Varsity squad.

Lets play Oddsmaker....Fantasy Style...

-Looking at tonight's games, Ward needs 30 from Ray Rice and Bowe...does he get there? (I hope he does I got Ravens +1.5 haha)

15% chance

-I am down 20 points with Flacco going and that would be tough enough but throw in the fact that Mac has Boldin and Mathews toninght and I am done. Mathews is going to house and I got no chance. My official chance is...

0.1%

-Voss is done. He is down double digits and Byrne still has 3 players left. In the previous 2004 HS football analogy Voss is Sandburg and Byrne is one of the Randle ELs and he is about to blow Voss out. Voss Chance of winning...

0% (he is more out of it than the Cubs)

-The best matchup to watch is Bone v Billy which is currently scored 100.78 v. 100.68 with Billy clinging to a fraction of a lead. Tonight Bone has Gates and Billy has the Jets D so well see. Bone gets last word with the night game and Gates could be a hero. Chance bone comes back for the win....
50.1%

-Jake and Korhonen have a much better matchup now that Austin snapped in the SN game. Kris has Jamal Charles, Braylon Edwards, and Kaeding kicking while Jake just has Mason (WR) for Baltimore. Look for Kris to win bc of the kicker and RB points he will snag. Chance Kris rolls back and wins...

98.5%

-These are the stats Mark needs tonight to beat JoeSal.
Rivers: 500 yards, 6 TD, 1 Rush Td, and 10 yards rushing (51points)
Gonna go out on a limb here and say Mark should focus on week 2. Right now he has as good of a chance of winning as Leonard Weaver does at walking tomorrow (gotta see this) --- http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/09/12/leonard-weaver-injury-eag_n_713949.html --- Chance Mark wins

-100%

We shall see tonight who steals a win and who holds on. Good luck and I will have a full recap tomorrow on the weeks games. Good luck Shitbox

Cheers

Finn

NFL Playoff Predictions

NFC

1.Packers
2.Cowboys
3.49ers
4.Falcons
5.Saints
6.Vikings


AFC
1.Colts
2.Ravens
3.Chargers
4.Patriots
5.Texans
6.Steelers


NFC Wild Card

3.49ers d. 6.Vikings 27-20
5.Saints d. 4.Falcons 35-24

NFC Divisional

1.Packers d. 5.Saints 31-30
2.Cowboys d. 3.49ers 23-16

NFC Title Game
1.Packers d. 2.Cowboys 32-26

AFC Wild Card
3.Chargers d. 6.Steelers 26-13
4.Patriots d. 5.Texans 27-10

AFC Divisional

2.Ravens d. 3.Chargers 28-23
4.Patriots d. 1.Colts 24-21

AFC Title Game
2.Ravens d. 4.Patriots 20-17

Super Bowl

Ravens d. Packers 27-24


Now, as we know none of this will happen but it gives me a point of refernce to at least figure out how wrong I was haha.

Cheers,

Fantasy Finn

AFC West Preview

Going to keep this one short and sweet because noone really cares about this division and neother do I.

1. Chargers
Lock. Talent at all the offensive positions and even with guys holding out they are too tough for the other 3 teams in this division. Rivers throws some TD to guys youve never heard of as the Chargers roll to 11-5 and the Division Crown.

2. Oakland Raiders

I like this team to be honest, but only because they believe in Tom Cable after all thats happened. Those players love him and he is sort of a Rex Ryan type guy where theplayers relate to him and kinda dig his style. He needs to win early though and have a great run game to keep the momentum. Raiders start strong and stumble late, finish 6-10.

3. Denver Broncos
Gonna be another team that could shock some people but probably won't be good enough all season to finish above .500%. They may start the Tebow Era this year but i wuold wait. Orton gives them a stable driver going the speed limit which in their case will get them 6 wins. They finish 6-10 and wonder where they are as a franchise moving forward.

4. Kansas City Chiefs

The only reason they can be better than this is is they use that ground game correctly. I do not trust Haley and I do not know what he is doing with the offense. But there is offensive talent there and well see if they learn how to use it. They also go 6-10 as the AFc West has a three-of-a-kind, its just a shame that its Jokers and not Aces.

Cheers,
Fantasy Finn

NFL playoff predictions coming soon

NFL Pick Em-60% Season Winners Guarantee

Every week I will give out my picks against the spread for the NFL. I will keep track of my season record and I hope you post your picks in the comments section and I will keep your score as well. Cheers to all and good luck with your picks.

Game Line Winner
Vikings @ Saints -6.5 Saints
Dolphins @ Bills +3.5 Dolphins
Lions @ Bears -6.5 Bears
Raiders @ Titans -6.5 Raiders
Bengals @ Patriots -5.5 Patriots
Panthers @ Giants -7.5 Panthers
Falcons @ Steelers +2.5 Falcons
Browns @ Bucs -2.5 Browns
Broncos @ Jaguars -2.5 Broncos
Colts @ Texans +3.5 Texans
49ers @ Seahawks +2.5 49ers
Packers @ Eagles +1.5 Packers
Cardinals @ Rams +3.5 Cardinals
Cowboys @ Redskins +3.5 Cowboys
Ravens @ Jets -3.5 Ravens
Chargers @ Chiefs +5.5 Chargers


There are soem good games this week and it is nice to see some tough picks in week 1. Very even matchups across the board.

Week 1 0-0
Season 0-0

Cheers,

Fantasy Finn

Orland Fantasy League Draft Review

Orland Fantasy League Draft Review
Winners and Losers

Round 1:
(Rd 1 Grade)

Well we saw a huge trade start the proceedings as the Wausau Winners traded the #1 pick away to Pick Titty for other draft picks. This swapped the home of Chris Johnson and allowed Finn to get more depth with 4 picks in the top 30. It worked well for both sides and was just one of many trades on the day.
Grade: A+

Top 3 went as planned with Hype getting my favorite #3 pick ever. I love Ray Rice and would love to have that pick.
Grade: A+

Also Byrne gets a 1A with his pick and can not be upset about getting AllDay AP.
Grade: A+

Pick 4 is when I knew this was going to be a fun draft as Korhonen made a pick that only a true Hank could make. He took Aaron Rodgers with the highest selection I have ever seen a QB go and he avoided MJD. I feel if injury concerns for MJD were not out there he would have gone #4 and this draft would’ve been more predictable.
Grade: B+


Castro had the first real decision as he faced the fear of choosing one player out of a selection of 3 stud RB’s and an elite WR, and throw into the mix that QB’s were going early and often and he could’ve gone anywhere with this pick. I think he made the right call on Gore (either him or MJD there) and Gore is safer due to the previously discussed injury concerns with MJD.
Grade: A-


I took MJD because I had to, even though Johnson was my target at WR there, because he brought me a title last year and when healthy is a top 2-3 back and only gains value in a PPR system.
Grade: A-

Bone made a nice pick with Turner who is going to be a great back this year and brings great value to #7.
Grade: A-

Jake was just the MVP of the draft for me because you never knew what name was going to be called. Taking Peyton Manning this early to me was a sin, because yes he may produce and I think this Colts team will have great numbers, but he is still a QB and that is just too early. He was my #4 or #5 QB on the board and people have to remember he does not win you fantasy titles only real ones (he usually sits weeks 15-16 when the semis and finals are going on.) A surprise pick there and I wish you the best of luck Jake.
Grade: C-

Voss had the arguably the best pick of the first round as he snags A Johnson at 9 when I know I wanted him at 6. Lot of value there if he stays healthy and Voss teamed him up with Schaub so he can rename his team The Houston Vossans or the Dutch Texans.
Grade: A+

Shitbox takes a good RB but it is not his fault the elite players were gone by this point, now he just needs value and production and I think he got it.
Grade: B+

Steven Jackson…well I do not know what to do with him. Has an easy schedule and puts up great numbers, but may be cursed by a bad team and bad offense. We shall see…
Grade: INC

Mac gets back into a groove with some nice picks at 12 and 13, he gets an elite QB in Drew Brees (slight improvement over Cutler huh Mac?) and an elite RB in Mathews. It will be interesting to see how Chargers use him at GL but he will get lots of touches and an easy schedule.
Grade: A

Now I will just give a summary from round to round that includes best and worst pick, and some other notes. Enjoy.

2nd Round

Best Pick: Randy Moss-Voss
The reason I love this pick is he was to me a 1st round guy and he is going to mash this year. And Voss now has the top 2 WR in the league and he is going to be a force if he gets any run game production.

Worst Pick: Jahvid Best-Jake
Not a bad pick because I love the player, but it was a bad pick because no one would’ve taken him until the 3rd at minimum. His ADP was in the 50’s and 60’s and Jake could’ve gotten an elite WR here and Best in round 3 or 4.

Surprised to see DeAngelo fall to me, wasn’t planning it but had to take him. Also Ryan Grant is a stud, and so is Calvin Johnson and I actually like the QB’s being picked there. Little high but they will both be studs this year. Reggie Wayne is a guy I do not want though and be careful with Charles; he has bust-or best written all over him.



3rd Round

Best Pick: Cedric Benson-Hype
I think Benson was the best pick here because he provides a workhorse (as long as healthy) and he is going to get lots of carries and lots of yards. Also they like to punch run it in when in the red zone and look for CB to be a beast.

Worst Pick: Roddy White-Finn
I think I made the worst pick because I had him ranked 23 and not this high but I freaked on Jennings and tried to wait him out. I failed (thanks Byrne) and should have taken Jennings and than Marshall/ Mccoy/Colston. White may turn out to be a stud, but I wanted Jennings and so I failed.

I love Jennings at 26, I wanted him at 30 but I waited too long. Lot of good WR going in this round, a little later than I would have guessed. Mac fucked this round up let’s not forget and if I were him I would’ve taken Pierre Thomas over Boldin just because Flacco is not going to lock in on him. Lots of WR’s and lots of variety in Baltimore. Also Voss filled a need at RB and thank god he got Wells because if he got elite proven RB we would be in trouble.

4th Round

Best Pick: Matt Schaub-Voss
He completes his aerial attack and teams up Johnson and Schaub. More importantly it is the last of the Elite 7 QB’s and he gets him just in time. Matt would not have made it past my #49 I know that. Great value and sets him up well.

Worst Pick: Jason Witten-Pick Titty
I like Witten but that was just too early. Taking Witten at #48 when Finley went #73 is just too big of a gap. TE’s are key and bring lots of value, but there is not much difference between #3 and #7 in their rankings. I would have waited and grabbed Hines Ward or Arian Foster here.

Good round to shake out winners and losers. Here, the elite players are gone and it is time to pick those guys who will spring you forward to the top of the standings. I like Dallas Clark simply because he gets mad PPR points and lots of TD’s (as opposed to Witten getting very few TD’s last season.) I like Ochcocinco, I think he is going to be nasty and I also like Steve Smith as a nice week 14-16 guy (check the schedule it is cupcake city.) Also Addai and Moreno for me are bad picks but Moreno could be a great one. Addai is a no-go for me and would never take him on my team ever again for eternity. Give me some Donald Brown. Also interesting to see Welker go (traded to JoeSal) because I didn’t know how early that would happen.

5th Round

Best: Arian Foster-Bone
Great selection, here is a guy who is going to put up crazy numbers and most do not even know his name. I simply love Foster and he is a top 10 RB in my opinion by seasons end.

Worst: Marion Barber- Dr. Rush
This pick is confusing to me because I would rather have Felix Jones and he fell to 82nd. I find it hard to believe Joesal couldn’t have waited 3-4 rounds and still gotten Barber. Even then I would hate it but he took him way way too early.

Weird round, with some stretches and hopes (Maclin, Forte, Bradshaw) and some solid WR’s (Driver, Ward, Harvin.) Lot of upside acro0ss the board but could be the worst round as well as many players have ?’s surrounding them. On a personal note I needed Joe Flacco, and I know Bone is pissed, but I reached for him here a little early.

6th Round
Best: There is no best pick, just 3 terrible ones.
Worst: Chris “Penis Playbook” Cooley- Castro
Brent Celek-Shitbox
Kellen Winslow- Jake

I can not believe these 3 guys were taken in the 6th round. Throw on top of that they were taken BEFORE Jermichael Finley (not complaining though hehe),Visante Shciancoe, and Owen Daniels baffles me. If you wanted any one of those 3 TE’s you could have waited (and in Cooley and Winslow’s case..waited and waited and waited.) They were taken way to early when you k now TE’s are somewhat random and their value is somewhat balanced. Very suprising.

Other parts of this round….I love Santana Moss and Garcon as nice WR picks and also Kolb should be fine. Ward I am on the fence with your Eli pick especially since your back up plan Big Ben has the hardest schedule in the NFL in weeks 14-16.; Also Voss gets Spiller and it could be pick of the draft or the pick that ruins him.

7th Round
Best: Dwayne Bowe- Ward
Terry has some good WR’s (lots of consistent value) and this is a prime example. He will be a #1 and looks better than ever in camp, and he will have a nice year. To get him in the 7th is shocking.

Worst: Green bay Def-Voss
I like the timing on the defense but it was not the right team to take. You can only take a lock down defense that plays an easy schedule this early. The Packers play a tough offensive schedule and will be in a lot of shootouts. They will need a lot of big plays and return TD’s to be of value here. You can’t expect some of those guys to repeat what they did defensively last year (see: Woodson, Charles.)

Lot of WR value here, and I like Bowe, Owens, Wallace but Mason and Edwards scare me. Mason will get hurt by TJ Whosyourmomma and Sanchez just can not throw the ball well enough to trust Edwards yet. I can not believe that Finley fell to me at this pick and I was pumped, also Matty Ice could be a great pick by Byrne.

8th Round
Best: Michael Bush-Billy & Malcolm Floyd-Byrne
I love both these guys and I think Michael Bush is just a stud (http://finnsfantasyworld.blogspot.com/2010/08/fantasy-sleeper-picks-1-of-20.html). Floyd will get easy looks against a scrub schedule and Jackson is out minimum 6 games if he plays at all for SD this year and believe me Rivers is good enough to pick up the slack. Bush will lead a dedicated ground game that has much more balance now with Campbell in Oakland and he will be a 1,000 yard back.

Worst: Vincent Jackson-JoeSal
While I like the risk factor involved and the fact that he may come on strong later in the year, it is just too costly here. You could have gotten his replacement player and likely #1 target for Rivers in Floyd. Also could have gotten depth at RB here. I just think it was too risky in such a solid league

Lot of good depth in this round as you can still get starters and quality players but the tide is beginning to turn a bit. Two suspended WR’s in Holmes and V Jackson get taken, but also great RB’s in Forsett and Bush taken. I took my #1 Defense in the 49ers and they are looking nasty and have an easy easy schedule.

9th Round
Best: Clinton Portis-Finn
Mike Shanahan=1000 yard backs. And to have a guy like Portis back there as your solid #1 is a guaranteed top 20 RB season. I may start him moving forward and I am glad to have snagged him up. Last quality RB left I think.

Worst: Gostkowski-K-Voss
Come on Voss. A Kicker in the 9th? Whats worse this pick or your team name?

McNally takes DNabb for some depth and lot of defenses taken here. Voss reaches for a kicker and also Houshmenzadah is a great pick up for Billy. Boring round though all in
all.

10th Round
Best: Jerome Harrison-Bone
I mean once Hardesty went down Harrison became a #1 again and he brings great value. Could be their leading rusher and best player as they improve or a struggling scrub as the Browns fall further into the pit of despair that is the NFL cellar.

Worst: Mason Crosby-Mcnally
Seriously guys…Kickers this early? Come on!!!! You don’t even know what the hells going to happen with them.

Besides Mac taking a kicker, there was a lot of good picks here. Bears WR’s were taken and they are all random until we see who Jay picks so could bring good value. Also Thomas Jones is a nice pick by Dupree and also Brandon Jacobs and Maroney could be steals. Not a lot of bad picks here.

Rest of Draft

Best:
Fred Jackson- Dupree
Jay Cutler-Jake
Donald Brown-Finn
Chris Chambers- Castro
Chad Henne-Bone
Devery Henderson-Byrne



Worst:
Antonio Bryant-Jake (Currently not on NFL roster)
John Kasay-Finn (Fucking Kicker-WHY???)
Golden Tate- Mac (Come on Irish)
Tashard Choice-Voss
Earl Bennett-Castro (Just had to take another Bears WR? Haha that makes 4!!!)

Well it was a great draft and the random predictions are (that mean nothing!!!):
1. JoeSal
2. Byrne
3. Voss
4. Terry Ward
5. Finn
6. Mark Ward

Finals
Valenta v Voss

Winner
Valenta


Remember fellas, I will be writing weekly articles and the like and I will post the links to our league site. Please read if you would like (great for the shitter I might add) and please comment on the blog and Ill write back and well have running discussions. Cheers and good luck to all, I am glad we set this up, and thanks for reading. Enjoy the season ….


Cheers,

Fantasy Finn (AKA Da Commish)

NFC West Preview

NFC West Preview

1. San Francisco 49ers

Yawn. This division is so boring and so predictable that I am hoping I am wrong and it gets flipped topsy turvy much like the MLB West Divisions act. The 49ers are far and away the elite team in this division, but that id by default it seems. They have talent everywhere on the field but the QB position could be their downfall. That is tough to say as well considering they have a #1 overall pick at the helm.

Elite TE? Check. Elite RB? Check. Elite/young WR? Check. Elite QB?......Well that check bounced because the 49ers can only go as far as Alex Smith takes them. He has a lot of weapons and a lot of experience but he has to take strides forward in his development for them to be taken serious in the playoffs.

Their defense is also a strong unit much like the offense but it doesn’t have the gaping question mark like the offense does. The defense has a QB/MLB of its own that is possibly the best in the NFL. Patrick Willis is just fucking tough and there is no other way to say that properly. On top of that they have talent in the secondary and a hungry unit being led by its head coach Mike “Samurai” Singletary.

I love this team in fantasy and I love them in real life to win the division but as for the playoffs I just can’t tell. They might be good enough to reach the NFC title game or they might get bounced early as the NFC West sacrificial lamb. I personally want their defense in every fantasy league I am in (they play one of the leagues worst schedules and they are very ball oriented and know how to score Td’s.)

The 49ers return to the glory days (kind of...) and go 11-5 and win the NFC West by 3 games. They may even sneak a 1st round bye in there if the power teams in the NFC eat at each other and balance the records.

2. Arizona Cardinals (if they start Andersen)

I mean this is just fun stuff, picking the rest of the order for this division. Feels like I am doing a scratch off and I got to get 3 alike numbers. These 3 teams are all terrible and possess huge questions and holes in their lineups. Seattle has a new regime and an aging QB with a loaded backfield that needs to clear itself up. Rams were just piss poor last year and added Sam Bradford who looks good in preseason but without a line he isn’t going to change anything. Finally, the Cardinals are figuring out this whole Matt Leinart thing.

The Cardinals will end up on top of this hot pile of you know what if and only if Derek Andersen is their starter. Leinart gets traded and this team goes from 5-11 to 8-8 in an instant. It is not that DA is a great QB it is just that Leinart is so limited and would be one of the worst QB’s in the league for this downfield attack. Andersen has shown the ability to put up big numbers but lets see if he can rekindle the magic (shouldn’t be that hard with Fitzgerald on the outside!)

The Cardinals do have a lot of talent though with a solid 1-2 punch in the backfield that rivals most and an elite WR who with the right QB is the best in the league. Sadly we do not know if he is going to get used properly, it feels like watching somebody drive a new Ferrari at 25 mph through a neighborhood instead of at 100mph on the Autobahn. Either way the talent is there on offense to succeed if they figure out the QB problem.

Defensively they are quick and play well at home and have a lot of stars. Joey Porter, Darnell Dockett, Adrian Wilson, and Dominic Rodgers-Cromartie are all back and ready to show the NFC that this defense is a beast. The defense, if it plays up to its potential, could key them to a winning record and a playoff berth. Realistically they are the only other team that could possibly win this division besides the 49ers so I hope they stay close.

The Cardinals will have some tough losses, and end up go 8-8 but they will look better at times. I can see them winning 10, or 11 because of the easy schedule but without a solid QB who knows.

3. Seattle Seahawks

I really wanted to put them higher up and make them a sleeper team but I do not see it. Their defense does not compare to the teams above and neither does their offense. They have a new coach and a new system, a RB by committee (until Forsett takes the reigns in week 3), a bald QB, and old WR’s. They might have some good days but they will not be consistent enough to win week in and week out or be a serious playoff contender.

Hasselbeck is bald yes, but so is Scott Van Pelt and he is the man, so there you have it. I like Matt, he understands his role and his job and he is an experienced QB who can make most of the big throws. The problem is without a good line or great talent at WR he is going to be mediocre and that is his ceiling this year and probably every year moving forward. Draft him as a back up QB maybe if you like the match up for that week but he is pretty much done as long as he stays in Seattle.

The run game to me has to be their biggest threat for them to contend. Forsett has to come out and play like a true #1 RB and I think he will. If not Julius Jones or Washington are going to have to step up. Also I like their TE John Carlson, even though I hate Notre Dame, and he is a great pick up in the late rounds to even out the roster and give you a valuable TE if you don’t have one yet.

Defensively they will need a big push from the D-Line to solidify themselves as a premier defense in the NFC. They have a great young set of linebackers and I love Trufant at CB but without pressure on the QB it won’t matter. Side note: I think Carroll will turn them around within 3 years and I think he will succeed in the NFL this time around.

Seahawks go 6-10 and look forward to the future and hopefully it is a bright one under Pete Carroll.

4. St.Louis Rams

Well the loss of Avery at WR didn’t help at all that is for sure. This O-Line is terrible, it wouldn’t even be able to block for Nelly in the Longest Yard, and he was amazing in that! (Looked like a Chris Johnson/ Gayle Sayers hybrid) This team does hopefully though have a bright future with Mr. Oklahoma at QB and it still has a great RB in Steven Jackson although his career has to be winding down soon.

Jackson reminds me of Dominique Wilkins in a sense that he was always good and always a top 5 scorer. He is consistent, dominating at times, and just the single guy you knew you had to account for much like Wilkins was. But alas, very few playoff runs and when they did happen they never were for all the marbles. Just sad to see a great runner waste so many tough years on a terrible team.

Defensively they have some good young players who hopefully they can develop into a strong core moving forward. I Like Long on the D-line and Laurinaitis in the middle and to have Atogwe at safety is not too shabby either.

Rams struggle to win a single game and I don’t even know who to blame for it. I mean I just feel bad for everyone involved that they are this bad. Rams go 1-15!!!! Heard it here first.

Cheers,

Fantasy Finn

NFC South Prediction

NFC South Prediction

1.Atlanta Falcons

I wonder how many others in America have this team slotted in as the team to beat in the NFC South…5? 10? This is not a typo and this is not some random attention-grabbing pick. I have thought this out and figured out why the Saints will be the 2nd place team and why the Falcons will win this division.

The Falcons have got their main 2 contributors coming back healthy after up and down injury plaghued seasons a year ago. QB Matt Ryan is rocking and rolling, he reminds me of a young Tom Brady in the way he handles the huddle and makes the right throws. He is popular, charismatic, and a fan favorite but when he is in that huddle he is in command and he is their leader. In the backfield they are returning a healthier, more fit, Michael Turner the #2 RB in the NFC behind Adrian Peterson and he is ready to become more involved in the passing game as well.

The passing attack features a good young core, the best pass catching tight end of all time in Tony Gonzalez, and a stud WR in Roddy White. White has been a consistent performer in fantasy and reality, with over 80 catches and 1,000 yards in the last 3 seasons. He also produced 24 Touchdowns over the last 3 seasons and he seems primed to breakout even more as the Falcons get back to their balanced attack.

Defensively this team is quick and always makes the correct play. Not the flashiest of defenses, they bend but don’t break, and try to force FG’s. This year they will need more pressure on the QB and they need to force more TO’s to become a division winner. Their defensive line is strong and possesses speed and power form both ends and this has to be their best defensive unit to set the tone for the season.

The main reason though that I have the Falcons beating the Saints out for the division is the almighty schedule. Both teams play their divisional opponents twice, so that is 6 identical games right there. Than they both play the NFC West and the AFC North but the differences begin to arise in these inter-divisional games. The Saints play @SF, @ARI, @Cin, and @Baltimore and they get Pittsburgh with a healthy Big Ben. The Falcons on the other hand, with the same set of 8 teams, get; @STL, @SEA, @ CLE and @Pit. Oh yeah that Pittsburgh game is week #1 and the Steelers will be terrible compared to later in the season.

As if that is not enough disparity between easy and tough, both teams play 2 more wild card games scheduled at random by the league. The Falcons get @PHI and GB at home, two tough matchups but now overwhelming and they should be fine in these contests. The Saints however open up Minnesota at home and than @Dal later in the season. I mean across the board the Saints just play a tougher schedule and it will end up costing them the division, but not their playoff spot.

Falcons go 11-5 and win the division, with Turner playing a more developed role and their balanced attack firing on all cylinders.

#2. New Orleans Saints

I am not going to go crazy here though and drop the Saints any farther than #2 because they still are the most talented offensive team in the NFL and their weapons will allow them to remain in every game and be a force to be reckoned with. They have an elite QB in Drew Brees who has got more toys than Richie Rich and a balanced attack that other teams dream of.

Brees is the catalyst and the leader, much like Matty Ice for the Falcons, except he is better and more skilled. Brees is a true leader, a driving force on and off the field for that franchise and there is no reason to see that stopping anytime soon. He can throw it to so many targets from RB’s Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas to WR’s Colston, Meachem, and Henderson, and lets not forget TE Jeremy Shockey. Brees and this offense will be amazing just like last year and I am going to try and tune in as much as I can to watch them play.

But as I discussed with the Falcons, their schedule is brutal and sometimes it is just too much to handle. They are coming off a Super Bowl win and may have lost some of their edge and passion. Throw on top of that the extra wear and tear on their bodies from the extra games and attention and they are due for a drop-off. The schedule also has a stretch of games that is terrible to even look at on paper; @Dallas, @Cincinatti, @Baltimore, St. Louis(not scary haha), and @Atlanta (probably for the division title). I mean 4 tough road games in 5 weeks late in the season is no gift that a Super Bowl winner should ever be given.

The defense for me is where they are going to suffer, because last years team did not defend well in the NFC title game and should have lost. They are not set up to be dominate and I think this will cost them down the line when they do not have home field advantage in the playoffs. Saints go 11-5 but lose the division to the Falcons.

#3 Carolina Panthers

Not much left in the division after the Saints and Falcons, besides two struggling franchises looking for a spark to carry them in to the future. The Panthers just inked Jimmy Clausen as the hope of their franchise and well see if he makes it onto the field in 2010.

Panthers do have a returning QB in Matt Moore who surprised some people and looks to be much better than people imagined. He also has a strong connection with Steve Smith as they hooked up for 3TDs and lots of yards in the final 3 weeks last season. They do posses the #1 RB tandem in the league and that could carry them to some wins. I personally see them as better than expected and more importantly I think late in the year they will be tough to beat and will be a classic spoiler to other NFC teams.

Defensively they lost Julius Peppers which is going to hurt all the other players because losing a focal point like that really opens the field for the offense. They need big time play out of their secondary to keep them in games and if all goes well the defense can slow the opposition down. They Panthers want to grind it out all night and will try to do so behind Stewart and Williams.

Panthers have a surprising year and finish 8-8 and I do not see Clausen making the lineup anytime soon.

#4 Tampa Bay Buccaners

Ok, I am sorry but as a franchise these guys are jokes, just look at the last two coaches they fired; Tony Dungy and Jon Gruden. All so they could hire Raheem Morris? Seriously? Well I hope for all Tampa fans that the Rays win the World Series because that is all you got. Well actually you live in Florida so you got nice weather and the beach so you can kiss my frozen Wisconsin ass, and have fun rooting for the 2-14 Bucs.

Cheers,

Fantasy Finn

AFC South Preview

AFC South Preview

1. Indianapolis Colts

I have been making some bold predictions and going against the collective view of other bloggers and NFL writers, but here I got to stay true to Peyton Manning. As much as I am down on this team from years past, they still have the smartest player to ever play the game and the most consistent performer in the NFL. This Colts team will not go 13-3 or 14-2 but they will still win the division and be a good team.

First the Colts have to fight off the jinx of the Super Bowl, 7 of last 9 teams to lose in a SB did not qualify for playoffs in the following season. I feel like if anyone can buck this trend it is Peyton and these consistent Colts. They return all major players on offense and look for that WR core to be deeper and more balanced as Wayne gets slower and older. I really like Garcon, Collie, and Gonzalez because together they give you great talent, youth, and versatility in the passing game.

Dallas Clark is still a premier tight end and in complete rhythm with Peyton and they are such a strong tandem to face in critical moments and third downs. Throw in the continued development, and hopeful starting role, for Donald Brown and this team actually looks better than ever on paper. But there O-line I really feel is going to hurt them this year. Saturday has missed some time and is getting long in the tooth, and they have injuries to 3 linemen right now. Peyton’s left side is going to be weak and he may actually get dirt on his jersey this year.

On defense they can only go up. Last year they gave up over 125 rushing yards a game, and only had 34 sacks. The Colts do spend more time on the field due to Peyton’s quick pace but they can still be a better defense and a tougher unit. They have a dominate defensive line with Mathis on the left and Freeney on the right but if you do not have talent elsewhere than opposing offenses can game plan around the line. They need good tackling and improved speed from the linebackers in order to slow the ground game of opposing teams, and the cornerbacks need to make more plays on the ball. Kelvin Hayden, Jerraud Powers, Deshea Townsend, and Jacob Lacey are the 4 CBs listed in the Colts depth chart. There starting CB's combined for 2 INT’s last year and that has to change.

If the Colts can just get one playmaker in the secondary it would vastly change their defense. They have good solid parts in the back 7, but no leader, no special player, no Polamalu type player. Unless they can get Bob Sanders back and healthy I do not see this changing and the Colts will lose in the playoffs because of this defense. Bob Sanders is the key to this whole season because they can be good without him, even great without him, but they can not be the best without Sanders playing safety.

Colts go 11-5 and win the division. Which is a down year for them, but still a good year for any NFL franchise.


2. Houston Texans

This is such a deep division in a sense that you do not know week to week who is going to beat who. The Texans, Jaguars, and Titans all have offensive firepower and some of the best players in the league but every week you got no idea who is going to beat who. I feel the Texans (FINALLY) pull away form the pack in the AFC and become an elite team like San Diego or Baltimore. The organization has been drafting well for years and slowly building momentum by keeping big name players and adding nice FA’s. The Texans will be good this year, I guarantee it.

This team is as aerial focused as they come; I mean most of you can not even name their starting RB (Arian Foster who is a huge sleeper this year.) With Matt Schaub they have one of the league’s best QB’s and the league’s top WR in Andre Johnson. The rest of the WR core is deep and reminds me of the Colts in a way because there is talent there and variety and you do not really know who is going to have the big week outside of their #1 WR.

The ground game is actually pretty solid and when you throw in the fact that Mr. Fumble Steve Slaton is in the dog house for eternity and that Foster has played well this preseason. I love Arian Foster not only because no one knows who he is but because he will be there #1 back and get a lot of touches and attention because when you focus on A Johnson that leaves the ground game room to work with.

The defense has some big name players and played adequately last season, but this year they will be a force. Mario Williams is a beast, Cody and Okoye are great DT’s and the whole front 4 is just great as a unit. The linebackers are also nothing to slouch at, led by DeMeco Ryans an up and coming stud in the middle. Finally, I like their two starting CB’s in Quin and Jackson because they are both so young (combined 1 year experience) and they will have little pressure on them to perform like veterans do. They will mess up and move on, which is the perfect thing to do as a young corner.

The Texans finally get over the 8-8 hump and finish 10-6 including a win @Indy and they will make the playoffs. Do not be surprised to see this team win the division either if the Colts misstep along the way.

3. Tennessee Titans

I just love this team and the guys they have in charge. I love Vince Young, and I still think he is going to win 2 Super Bowls before he retires. I think Jeff Fisher is amazing and he is a great coach who can really motivate and relate to his players. Finally, how can you not love Chris Johnson, the most electric runner since Barry Sanders! They are good on offense and good on defense but together it won’t be good enough.

They play in one of the deepest divisions in football with two great teams and no scrub teams to help the schedule. On top of that they started 0-6 last year so it is not like they are carrying that much momentum. Although they did end the year 8-2 that has pretty much expired in a sense and they are starting fresh.

They need more balance in the passing game this year and look for Kenny Britt to be a stud early on as he is Vince’s safety WR. They should continue to run the ball with CJ as mush as possible but I really like when they get him passes on the perimeter and I want him to catch 70+ balls this year.

Defensively I like there secondary and the 2nd half of the season it had. For the season though the defense allowed a whooping 25.1 points and over 365 yards a game, both good for bottom 10 in the NFL. They had a much better 2nd half though like I said and I look for them to build on what they learned but still they need more talent in the front 7 and that run defense has not been the same since Albert “I am going to stomp on your head and hold out of mini-camp because I want to oh and also I make 100 Million $” Haynesworth.

Titans have another up and down season, but VY performs better to help CJ. They end up 7-9 but still moving forward as a franchise.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars

Another team I wish I could give 7, or 9 wins to but I just can’t. They play in a division where every game is going to be tough and they do not have enough firepower around MJD to honestly compete. I like Garrard, he is a solid QB but on a team where they need more he drastically loses value.

They do have two good WR’s though in Mike Sims-Walker and Mike Thomas and look for them to have good seasons even if Garrard is not in the best shape. The defense gave up over 350 yards a game and 23 ppg, and really has no reason to claim they will be better. I like bringing in Kampan but it is not going to change much until you get more talent around him, Reggie Nelson, and Daryl Smith.

The Jaguars are boring, they get blacked out due to low attendance and without MJD they would be a bust in fantasy circles too. They need to rebuild and get a more prolific young QB in there to boost the franchise and hopefully they do not fall off the wagon and give up this year. I see them going 4-12 and having a dismal season.

Cheers,

Fantasy Finn